A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
